

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 45.16%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | 
| 30.59% (  -0.77) | 24.24% (  -0.14) | 45.16% (  0.91) | 
| Both teams to score 58.57% (  0.08) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 56.19% (  0.27) | 43.81% (  -0.27) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.8% (  0.27) | 66.19% (  -0.27) | 
| Heerenveen Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.81% (  -0.36) | 27.19% (  0.37) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.4% (  -0.48) | 62.6% (  0.48) | 
| AZ Alkmaar Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.44% (  0.5) | 19.56% (  -0.5) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.53% (  0.81) | 51.47% (  -0.81) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | 
| 2-1 @ 7.36% (  -0.13) 1-0 @ 6.93% (  -0.16) 2-0 @ 4.51% (  -0.15) 3-1 @ 3.2% (  -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.61% (  -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.96% (  -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.04% (  -0.04) Other @ 3% Total : 30.59% | 1-1 @ 11.3% (  -0.07) 2-2 @ 6% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.32% (  -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.42% (  0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.24% | 1-2 @ 9.22% (  0.08) 0-1 @ 8.68% (  0.03) 0-2 @ 7.08% (  0.14) 1-3 @ 5.02% (  0.12) 0-3 @ 3.85% (  0.13) 2-3 @ 3.27% (  0.05) 1-4 @ 2.05% (  0.08) 0-4 @ 1.57% (  0.08) 2-4 @ 1.33% (  0.04) Other @ 3.1% Total : 45.16% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 | 
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 | 
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 | 
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 | 
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 | 
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 | 
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 | 
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 | 
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 | 
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 | 
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 | 
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 | 
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 | 
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 | 
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 | 
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 | 
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 | 
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
