

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.46%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 26.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | 
| 49.46% (  -2.03) | 23.8% (  0.46) | 26.74% (  1.57) | 
| Both teams to score 57.33% (  -0.03) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.78% (  -0.73) | 44.22% (  0.73) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.4% (  -0.72) | 66.6% (  0.72) | 
| AZ Alkmaar Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 82.02% (  -1.04) | 17.98% (  1.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.16% (  -1.81) | 48.83% (  1.81) | 
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.89% (  0.84) | 30.11% (  -0.84) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.75% (  0.99) | 66.24% (  -0.99) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | 
| 2-1 @ 9.57% (  -0.13) 1-0 @ 9.29% (  -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.97% (  -0.29) 3-1 @ 5.47% (  -0.26) 3-0 @ 4.56% (  -0.33) 3-2 @ 3.28% (  -0.08) 4-1 @ 2.35% (  -0.2) 4-0 @ 1.96% (  -0.21) 4-2 @ 1.41% (  -0.08) Other @ 3.61% Total : 49.46% | 1-1 @ 11.15% (  0.24) 2-2 @ 5.74% (  0.06) 0-0 @ 5.41% (  0.17) 3-3 @ 1.31% (  -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.8% | 1-2 @ 6.69% (  0.29) 0-1 @ 6.5% (  0.35) 0-2 @ 3.9% (  0.29) 1-3 @ 2.68% (  0.17) 2-3 @ 2.3% (  0.08) 0-3 @ 1.56% (  0.15) Other @ 3.11% Total : 26.74% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 25 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 63 | 
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 55 | 
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 49 | 
| 4 | FC Twente | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 46 | 
| 5 | Feyenoord | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 44 | 
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 43 | 
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 40 | 6 | 41 | 
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 32 | 
| 9 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 30 | 
| 10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 29 | 
| 11 | Groningen | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 28 | 
| 12 | Heracles | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 27 | 
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 26 | 
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 25 | 
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 | 
| 16 | Willem II | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 24 | 
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 17 | 
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 50 | -34 | 15 | 
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
