

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.46%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 26.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 49.46% ( | 23.8% ( | 26.74% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.33% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.78% ( | 44.22% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.4% ( | 66.6% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.02% ( | 17.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.16% ( | 48.83% ( |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.89% ( | 30.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.75% ( | 66.24% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 1-0 @ 9.29% ( 2-0 @ 7.97% ( 3-1 @ 5.47% ( 3-0 @ 4.56% ( 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 4-1 @ 2.35% ( 4-0 @ 1.96% ( 4-2 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 3.61% Total : 49.46% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0-0 @ 5.41% ( 3-3 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.8% | 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0-1 @ 6.5% ( 0-2 @ 3.9% ( 1-3 @ 2.68% ( 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0-3 @ 1.56% ( Other @ 3.11% Total : 26.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 25 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 63 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 49 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 46 |
| 5 | Feyenoord | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 40 | 6 | 41 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 32 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 30 |
| 10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 29 |
| 11 | Groningen | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 28 |
| 12 | Heracles | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 27 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 26 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Willem II | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 17 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 50 | -34 | 15 |
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