

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 59.86%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Dumbarton had a probability of 18.31%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arbroath win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Dumbarton win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arbroath | Draw | Dumbarton | 
| 59.86% ( | 21.83% ( | 18.31% ( | 
| Both teams to score 52.56% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.85% ( | 45.15% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.5% ( | 67.49% ( | 
| Arbroath Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 85.32% ( | 14.67% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.16% ( | 42.83% ( | 
| Dumbarton Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 61.6% ( | 38.4% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.85% ( | 75.15% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Arbroath | Draw | Dumbarton | 
| 1-0 @ 10.81% ( 2-0 @ 10.37% 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 3-0 @ 6.64% ( 3-1 @ 6.35% ( 4-0 @ 3.19% ( 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 5-0 @ 1.22% ( 5-1 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 59.86%  | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( 0-0 @ 5.63% ( 2-2 @ 4.75% ( 3-3 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.83%  | 0-1 @ 5.39% ( 1-2 @ 4.95% ( 0-2 @ 2.58% ( 1-3 @ 1.58% ( 2-3 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 18.31%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arbroath | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 | 
| 2 | Cove Rangers | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 40 | 16 | 53 | 
| 3 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 40 | 3 | 51 | 
| 4 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 | 
| 5 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 48 | 
| 6 | Montrose | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 40 | 
| 7 | Kelty Hearts | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 | 
| 8 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 37 | 
| 9 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 36 | 
| 10 | Dumbarton | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -16 | 17 | 
| > Scottish League One Full Table | |||||||||
