

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Alloa Athletic had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arbroath win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Alloa Athletic win was 2-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arbroath would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alloa Athletic | Draw | Arbroath |
| 33.69% ( | 24.94% ( | 41.37% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.17% ( | 45.83% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.85% ( | 68.15% ( |
| Alloa Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.77% ( | 26.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.66% ( | 61.33% ( |
| Arbroath Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.88% ( | 22.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.52% ( | 55.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Alloa Athletic | Draw | Arbroath |
| 2-1 @ 7.84% ( 1-0 @ 7.76% ( 2-0 @ 5.19% ( 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 3-0 @ 2.32% ( 4-1 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 3.28% Total : 33.69% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0-0 @ 5.8% ( 3-3 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.93% | 1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0-1 @ 8.75% ( 0-2 @ 6.6% ( 1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0-3 @ 3.32% ( 2-3 @ 2.97% ( 1-4 @ 1.68% ( 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 2-4 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 2.38% Total : 41.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arbroath | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 2 | Cove Rangers | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 40 | 16 | 53 |
| 3 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 40 | 3 | 51 |
| 4 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 5 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 48 |
| 6 | Montrose | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 40 |
| 7 | Kelty Hearts | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 8 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 37 |
| 9 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 36 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -16 | 17 |
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