

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inverness Caledonian Thistle win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Alloa Athletic had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inverness Caledonian Thistle win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Alloa Athletic win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inverness Caledonian Thistle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alloa Athletic | Draw | Inverness Caledonian Thistle |
| 31.69% ( | 26.22% ( | 42.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.5% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.06% ( | 51.94% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.31% ( | 73.68% ( |
| Alloa Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.48% ( | 30.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.26% ( | 66.73% ( |
| Inverness Caledonian Thistle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.56% ( | 24.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.13% ( | 58.87% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Alloa Athletic | Draw | Inverness Caledonian Thistle |
| 1-0 @ 8.85% ( 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 2-0 @ 5.25% ( 3-1 @ 2.93% ( 3-0 @ 2.08% ( 3-2 @ 2.06% ( Other @ 3.12% Total : 31.69% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( 0-0 @ 7.46% ( 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 3-3 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 10.5% ( 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0-2 @ 7.4% ( 1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0-3 @ 3.48% ( 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0-4 @ 1.23% ( Other @ 2.66% Total : 42.08% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arbroath | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 53 |
| 2 | Cove Rangers | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 48 |
| 3 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 48 |
| 4 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 40 |
| 5 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 36 |
| 7 | Montrose | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 30 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 9 |
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