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Championship | Gameweek 38
Mar 15, 2025 at 12.30pm UK
The Den
Stoke logo

Millwall
1 - 0
Stoke

Ivanovic (90+4' pen.)
Emakhu (30'), Connolly (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Koumas (63'), Tchamadeu (76'), (90+4'), Wilmot (90+2'), Thompson (90+3'), Burger (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leeds 2-0 Millwall
Wednesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Stoke 1-0 Blackburn
Wednesday, March 12 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Millwall 2-2 Stoke City

Neither side are in the strongest form at the moment, but Stoke have more on the line this weekend, so expect them to be motivated to put in a strong performance. That being said, the visitors have struggled on the road this term and are unlikely to pick up all three points, but given that they have scored four goals in their last two away matches, they could take a point at The Den on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 24.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Millwall in this match.

Result
MillwallDrawStoke City
48.32% (0.039999999999999 0.04) 27.36% (0.079000000000001 0.08) 24.31% (-0.122 -0.12)
Both teams to score 44.52% (-0.319 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.09% (-0.352 -0.35)59.9% (0.347 0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.83% (-0.271 -0.27)80.16% (0.26600000000001 0.27)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.07% (-0.14 -0.14)24.92% (0.136 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.45% (-0.192 -0.19)59.55% (0.188 0.19)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.3% (-0.316 -0.32)40.69% (0.311 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.72% (-0.281 -0.28)77.27% (0.27800000000001 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 48.31%
    Stoke City 24.31%
    Draw 27.35%
MillwallDrawStoke City
1-0 @ 14.08% (0.12 0.12)
2-0 @ 9.79% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.8% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.08% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.83% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.58% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 1.42% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 48.31%
1-1 @ 12.66%
0-0 @ 10.14% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 3.96% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 27.35%
0-1 @ 9.12% (0.042 0.04)
1-2 @ 5.7% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.1% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.71% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.19% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 1.28%
Total : 24.31%

How you voted: Millwall vs Stoke

Millwall
44.8%
Draw
34.5%
Stoke City
20.7%
29
Head to Head
Nov 9, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 15
Stoke
1-1
Millwall
Gibson (60')
Gibson (45+3'), Burger (50')
Coburn (42')
Esse (53'), Wintle (84')
Dec 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 23
Stoke
0-0
Millwall
Rose (47')
Mitchell (18'), Cooper (66'), Harding (79')
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 4
Millwall
1-0
Stoke
Nisbet (38')
Saville (7')

Laurent (18'), Wilmot (33'), Hoever (35'), Pearson (51'), McNally (82')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Jul 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 1
Millwall
2-0
Stoke
Cresswell (12', 65')
Cresswell (39')

Flint (44'), Kilkenny (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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