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Championship | Gameweek 38
Mar 15, 2025 at 12.30pm UK
The Den
Stoke logo

Millwall
1 - 0
Stoke

Ivanovic (90+4' pen.)
Emakhu (30'), Connolly (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Koumas (63'), Tchamadeu (76'), (90+4'), Wilmot (90+2'), Thompson (90+3'), Burger (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leeds 2-0 Millwall
Wednesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Stoke 1-0 Blackburn
Wednesday, March 12 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Millwall 2-2 Stoke City

Neither side are in the strongest form at the moment, but Stoke have more on the line this weekend, so expect them to be motivated to put in a strong performance. That being said, the visitors have struggled on the road this term and are unlikely to pick up all three points, but given that they have scored four goals in their last two away matches, they could take a point at The Den on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 24.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Millwall in this match.

Result
MillwallDrawStoke City
48.32% (0.039999999999999 0.04) 27.36% (0.079000000000001 0.08) 24.31% (-0.122 -0.12)
Both teams to score 44.52% (-0.319 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.09% (-0.352 -0.35)59.9% (0.347 0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.83% (-0.271 -0.27)80.16% (0.26600000000001 0.27)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.07% (-0.14 -0.14)24.92% (0.136 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.45% (-0.192 -0.19)59.55% (0.188 0.19)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.3% (-0.316 -0.32)40.69% (0.311 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.72% (-0.281 -0.28)77.27% (0.27800000000001 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 48.31%
    Stoke City 24.31%
    Draw 27.35%
MillwallDrawStoke City
1-0 @ 14.08% (0.12 0.12)
2-0 @ 9.79% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.8% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.08% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.83% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.58% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 1.42% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 48.31%
1-1 @ 12.66%
0-0 @ 10.14% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 3.96% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 27.35%
0-1 @ 9.12% (0.042 0.04)
1-2 @ 5.7% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.1% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.71% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.19% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 1.28%
Total : 24.31%

How you voted: Millwall vs Stoke

Millwall
44.8%
Draw
34.5%
Stoke City
20.7%
29
Head to Head
Nov 9, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 15
Stoke
1-1
Millwall
Gibson (60')
Gibson (45+3'), Burger (50')
Coburn (42')
Esse (53'), Wintle (84')
Dec 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 23
Stoke
0-0
Millwall
Rose (47')
Mitchell (18'), Cooper (66'), Harding (79')
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 4
Millwall
1-0
Stoke
Nisbet (38')
Saville (7')

Laurent (18'), Wilmot (33'), Hoever (35'), Pearson (51'), McNally (82')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Jul 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 1
Millwall
2-0
Stoke
Cresswell (12', 65')
Cresswell (39')

Flint (44'), Kilkenny (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLeeds UnitedLeeds4629134953065100
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd462881063362790
4Sunderland4621131258441476
5Coventry CityCoventry46209176458669
6Bristol City461717125955468
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn46199185348566
8Millwall461812164749-266
9West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4615191257471064
10Middlesbrough461810186456864
11Swansea CitySwansea461710195156-561
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds461513186069-958
13Norwich CityNorwich461415177168357
14Watford46169215361-857
15Queens Park RangersQPR461414185363-1056
16Portsmouth461412205871-1354
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd461314194965-1653
18Stoke CityStoke461215194562-1751
19Derby CountyDerby461311224856-850
20Preston North EndPreston461020164859-1150
21Hull City461213214454-1049
RLuton TownLuton461310234569-2449
RPlymouth ArgylePlymouth461113225188-3746
RCardiff CityCardiff46917204873-2544


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