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Championship | Gameweek 31
Feb 25, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Bet365 Stadium
Middlesbrough logo

Stoke
1 - 3
Middlesbrough

Bae (45')
Conway (78'), Moran (83')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Forss (20'), Azaz (52'), Conway (73')
Borges (75'), Conway (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Norwich 4-2 Stoke
Saturday, February 22 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Bristol City 2-1 Middlesbrough
Friday, February 21 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Stoke City 2-1 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough's season is on a distinct downward trajectory, and they will not turn it around against an improving Stoke side. While far from the finished article, the Potters are showing signs of life under Mark Robins and should extend their unbeaten steak on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
Stoke CityDrawMiddlesbrough
34.38% (0.101 0.1) 25.52% (-0.041 -0.04) 40.1% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Both teams to score 55.62% (0.16699999999999 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.72% (0.202 0.2)48.28% (-0.199 -0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.57% (0.184 0.18)70.42% (-0.181 -0.18)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.01% (0.161 0.16)26.99% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.66% (0.208 0.21)62.34% (-0.205 -0.2)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.18% (0.061999999999998 0.06)23.81% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.01% (0.087000000000003 0.09)57.99% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Stoke City 34.38%
    Middlesbrough 40.1%
    Draw 25.51%
Stoke CityDrawMiddlesbrough
1-0 @ 8.42% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-1 @ 7.91% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
2-0 @ 5.51% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 3.45% (0.024 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.48% (0.021 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.41% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.13% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 34.38%
1-1 @ 12.07% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 6.43% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 5.68% (0.023 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.19% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.51%
0-1 @ 9.22% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-2 @ 8.67% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 6.62% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.15% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.16% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.71% (0.015 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.49% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.14% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 0.97% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 40.1%

How you voted: Stoke vs Middlesbrough

Stoke City
59.1%
Draw
13.6%
Middlesbrough
27.3%
66
Head to Head
Sep 28, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 7
Middlesbrough
2-0
Stoke
Doak (34'), Hackney (73')
Edmundson (43'), Hackney (45+1'), Doak (56'), Azaz (66')

Burger (11'), Manhoef (27'), Wilmot (39'), Cannon (42'), Tchamadeu (59'), Gallagher (69'), Rose (82')
Aug 27, 2024 7.15pm
Second Round
Middlesbrough
0-5
Stoke
Tezgel (14'), Mmaee (57'), Koumas (60'), Manhoef (65', 69')
McCabe (77')
Mar 2, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 35
Stoke
2-0
Middlesbrough
Bae (40'), Baker (71')
Laurent (46'), Wilmot (51'), Ennis (62')

Latte Lath (51')
Oct 28, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 14
Middlesbrough
0-2
Stoke

McNair (53'), van den Berg (57')
Rose (8'), Leris (37')
Thompson (69'), Stevens (90+2')
Mar 14, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 37
Middlesbrough
1-1
Stoke
Akpom (23')
Hoever (45')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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