

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City | 
| 45.99% (  0.59) | 25.09% (  -0.16) | 28.91% (  -0.43) | 
| Both teams to score 54.7% (  0.24) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 51.57% (  0.44) | 48.43% (  -0.44) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 29.43% (  0.4) | 70.56% (  -0.4) | 
| Middlesbrough Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.91% (  0.44) | 21.08% (  -0.44) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.1% (  0.69) | 53.9% (  -0.69) | 
| Stoke City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.32% (  -0.09) | 30.68% (  0.09) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.07% (  -0.1) | 66.93% (  0.1) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City | 
| 1-0 @ 10.06% (  -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.26% (  0.06) 2-0 @ 7.84% (  0.07) 3-1 @ 4.81% (  0.09) 3-0 @ 4.07% (  0.09) 3-2 @ 2.84% (  0.05) 4-1 @ 1.87% (  0.06) 4-0 @ 1.58% (  0.06) 4-2 @ 1.11% (  0.03) Other @ 2.56% Total : 45.99% | 1-1 @ 11.89% (  -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.47% (  -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.47% (  0.02) 3-3 @ 1.12% (  0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.09% | 0-1 @ 7.64% (  -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.03% (  -0.07) 0-2 @ 4.52% (  -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.77% (  -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.16% (  0) 0-3 @ 1.78% (  -0.04) Other @ 3.02% Total : 28.91% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 | 
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 | 
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 | 
| 4 | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 | 
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 | 
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 | 
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 | 
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 | 
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 | 
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 | 
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 | 
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 | 
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 | 
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 | 
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 | 
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 | 
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 | 
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 | 
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 | 
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 | 
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 | 
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 | 
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