Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 24.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.