Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 44.2%. A win for Dunkerque had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.62%) and 1-2 (8.59%). The likeliest Dunkerque win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.