

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Alloa Athletic had a probability of 36.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Alloa Athletic win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queen of the South would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Queen of the South | Draw | Alloa Athletic | 
| 38.65% ( | 24.69% | 36.66% ( | 
| Both teams to score 58.88% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.79% | 44.21% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.42% | 66.58% ( | 
| Queen of the South Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.26% ( | 22.74% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.57% ( | 56.43% ( | 
| Alloa Athletic Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 76.21% ( | 23.79% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.05% ( | 57.94% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Queen of the South | Draw | Alloa Athletic | 
| 2-1 @ 8.52% ( 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 2-0 @ 5.93% ( 3-1 @ 4.21% ( 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 3-0 @ 2.93% ( 4-1 @ 1.56% ( 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 4-0 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 38.65%  | 1-1 @ 11.5% 2-2 @ 6.12% 0-0 @ 5.41% 3-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.68%  | 1-2 @ 8.26% ( 0-1 @ 7.77% ( 0-2 @ 5.58% ( 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0-3 @ 2.67% ( 1-4 @ 1.42% ( 2-4 @ 1.05% ( 0-4 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.66%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arbroath | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 | 
| 2 | Cove Rangers | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 40 | 16 | 53 | 
| 3 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 40 | 3 | 51 | 
| 4 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 | 
| 5 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 48 | 
| 6 | Montrose | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 40 | 
| 7 | Kelty Hearts | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 | 
| 8 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 37 | 
| 9 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 36 | 
| 10 | Dumbarton | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -16 | 17 | 
| > Scottish League One Full Table | |||||||||
