Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 53.99%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Mantova win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.