

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 70.75%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 12.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for an AZ Alkmaar win it was 1-2 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 70.75% ( | 16.6% ( | 12.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.35% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.77% ( | 32.23% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.17% ( | 53.83% ( |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.9% ( | 8.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.56% ( | 28.44% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.4% ( | 37.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.63% ( | 74.37% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-0 @ 9.62% ( 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 3-0 @ 8.06% ( 3-1 @ 7.88% ( 1-0 @ 7.65% ( 4-0 @ 5.07% ( 4-1 @ 4.96% ( 3-2 @ 3.86% ( 5-0 @ 2.55% ( 5-1 @ 2.49% ( 4-2 @ 2.42% ( 5-2 @ 1.22% ( 6-0 @ 1.07% ( 6-1 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 3.47% Total : 70.75% | 1-1 @ 7.48% ( 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0-0 @ 3.04% ( 3-3 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 16.6% | 1-2 @ 3.66% ( 0-1 @ 2.98% ( 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0-2 @ 1.46% ( 1-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 1.86% Total : 12.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 24 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 18 | 34 | 60 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 73 | 29 | 44 | 52 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 43 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 38 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 30 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 10 | Groningen | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 28 |
| 11 | Heracles | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
| 12 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 26 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 25 |
| 15 | Willem II | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 24 |
| 16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 23 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 17 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 48 | -33 | 14 |
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