We said: Northampton Town 1-2 Birmingham City
Northampton have definitely improved under Nolan, and the eight-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone will come in handy this weekend as they are unlikely to take anything against Birmingham.
However, the Blues have not been as infallible away from St Andrews' recently, and they may have to work for their points on Saturday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 62.34%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.04%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.