

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 36.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 36.72% ( | 25.41% ( | 37.87% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.28% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.43% ( | 47.57% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.23% ( | 69.77% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.7% ( | 25.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.93% ( | 60.07% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.33% ( | 24.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.81% ( | 59.19% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 8.58% ( 2-1 @ 8.25% ( 2-0 @ 5.89% ( 3-1 @ 3.78% ( 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 4-2 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.73% Total : 36.72% | 1-1 @ 12% ( 0-0 @ 6.24% ( 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 3-3 @ 1.23% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0-2 @ 6.11% ( 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0-3 @ 2.85% ( 2-3 @ 2.69% ( 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0-4 @ 1% ( 2-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 1.84% Total : 37.87% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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