

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 41.41% ( | 25.6% ( | 32.99% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.98% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.05% ( | 48.95% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.96% ( | 71.03% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.55% ( | 23.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.54% ( | 57.46% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.82% ( | 28.17% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.13% ( | 63.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 9.58% ( 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 2-0 @ 6.95% ( 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 3-0 @ 3.36% ( 3-2 @ 2.7% ( 4-1 @ 1.54% ( 4-0 @ 1.22% ( 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.03% Total : 41.41% | 1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 6.61% ( 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 8.37% ( 1-2 @ 7.69% ( 0-2 @ 5.3% ( 1-3 @ 3.25% ( 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0-3 @ 2.24% ( 1-4 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.76% Total : 32.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 27 | 59 | 79 |
| 2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 83 | 27 | 56 | 79 |
| 3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 30 | 32 | 68 |
| 4 | Braga | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 54 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 45 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 44 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 43 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 37 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 37 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 35 |
| 13 | Nacional | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 33 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
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