

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 43.04% ( | 24.8% ( | 32.16% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.4% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.33% ( | 45.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.01% ( | 67.99% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.74% ( | 21.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.82% ( | 54.18% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.9% ( | 27.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.52% ( | 62.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 1-0 @ 8.92% ( 2-0 @ 6.91% ( 3-1 @ 4.65% ( 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 4-1 @ 1.8% ( 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 4-2 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 2.59% Total : 43.04% | 1-1 @ 11.64% ( 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0-0 @ 5.76% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.79% | 1-2 @ 7.6% ( 0-1 @ 7.52% ( 0-2 @ 4.91% ( 1-3 @ 3.31% ( 2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0-3 @ 2.14% ( 1-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 3.03% Total : 32.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 27 | 59 | 79 |
| 2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 83 | 27 | 56 | 79 |
| 3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 30 | 32 | 68 |
| 4 | Braga | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 43 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 37 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 35 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
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