

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente | 
| 33.77% ( | 24.66% ( | 41.56% ( | 
| Both teams to score 58.44% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.45% ( | 44.55% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.08% ( | 66.91% ( | 
| Chaves Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 74.43% ( | 25.57% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.56% ( | 60.44% ( | 
| Gil Vicente Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.52% ( | 21.47% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.49% ( | 54.51% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente | 
| 2-1 @ 7.85% ( 1-0 @ 7.49% ( 2-0 @ 5.11% ( 3-1 @ 3.57% ( 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 3-0 @ 2.32% ( 4-1 @ 1.22% ( 4-2 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.54% Total : 33.77%  | 1-1 @ 11.51% ( 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 3-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.65%  | 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0-1 @ 8.45% ( 0-2 @ 6.5% ( 1-3 @ 4.54% ( 0-3 @ 3.33% ( 2-3 @ 3.1% ( 1-4 @ 1.75% 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 2-4 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 2.57% Total : 41.56%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 | 
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 | 
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 | 
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 | 
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 | 
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 | 
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 | 
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 | 
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
