

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 36.57%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Chaves |
| 35.81% ( | 27.62% ( | 36.57% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.97% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.2% ( | 56.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.27% ( | 77.73% ( |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.75% ( | 30.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.58% ( | 66.43% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.21% ( | 29.79% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.14% ( | 65.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SC Farense | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.77% ( 2-1 @ 7.8% ( 2-0 @ 6.44% ( 3-1 @ 3.11% ( 3-0 @ 2.57% ( 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 4-1 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.32% Total : 35.81% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0-0 @ 9.01% ( 2-2 @ 4.72% ( Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 10.91% ( 1-2 @ 7.9% 0-2 @ 6.61% ( 1-3 @ 3.19% ( 0-3 @ 2.67% ( 2-3 @ 1.91% ( 1-4 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.41% Total : 36.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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