

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.78%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.3%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Braga |
| 18.95% ( | 22.27% ( | 58.78% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.27% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.89% ( | 46.1% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.6% ( | 68.4% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.75% ( | 38.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.99% ( | 75% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.65% ( | 15.34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.89% ( | 44.1% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 2-1 @ 5.08% ( 2-0 @ 2.71% ( 3-1 @ 1.63% ( 3-2 @ 1.53% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 18.95% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( 0-0 @ 5.87% ( 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 3-3 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.27% | 0-1 @ 10.99% ( 0-2 @ 10.3% ( 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0-3 @ 6.44% ( 1-3 @ 6.19% ( 0-4 @ 3.02% ( 2-3 @ 2.98% ( 1-4 @ 2.9% ( 2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0-5 @ 1.13% ( 1-5 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 58.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
| 1 | S | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | I | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | S | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | T | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 4 |
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