Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 4

Oct 7, 2023 at 10.30pm UK

Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
2 - 1
Defensor

Gonzalez (45+1'), Rodriguez (68' pen.)
Gonzalez (22')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Navarro (29' pen.)
Pintado (78')

Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Penarol and Defensor Sporting.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions

Last Game: Boston River 0-1 Penarol
Saturday, September 2 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Top scorers

Defensor Sporting

All competitions

Last Game: La Luz 1-1 Defensor
Sunday, September 3 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Defensor Sporting
37.13% ( 0.06)	29.07% ( 0.02)	33.81% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 44.59% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.87% (

-0.06)

62.13% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.17% (

-0.05)

81.83% (

0.05)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.88% (

32.12% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.4% (

68.6% (

-0)

Defensor Sporting Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.69% (

-0.09)

34.31% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.98% (

-0.09)

71.02% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Penarol 37.12%

Defensor Sporting 33.8%

Draw 29.06%

Penarol	Draw	Defensor Sporting
1-0 @ 12.51% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.6% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0) Other @ 2.79% Total : 37.12%	1-1 @ 13.38% 0-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.59% Total : 29.06%	0-1 @ 11.78% 1-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 33.8%