

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bradford City | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 36.48% ( | 24.93% ( | 38.59% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.99% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.65% ( | 45.35% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.31% ( | 67.68% ( |
| Bradford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.59% ( | 24.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.17% ( | 58.83% ( |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.71% ( | 23.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.78% ( | 57.22% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Bradford City | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.24% ( 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 2-0 @ 5.65% ( 3-1 @ 3.87% ( 3-2 @ 2.82% ( 3-0 @ 2.66% ( 4-1 @ 1.37% ( 4-2 @ 1% ( 4-0 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 1.93% Total : 36.48% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 2-2 @ 6% ( 0-0 @ 5.68% ( 3-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.93% | 1-2 @ 8.51% ( 0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0-2 @ 6.04% ( 1-3 @ 4.14% ( 0-3 @ 2.93% ( 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0-4 @ 1.07% ( 2-4 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.14% Total : 38.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Port Vale | 42 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 76 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 58 | 39 | 19 | 73 |
| 3 | Walsall | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 72 | 51 | 21 | 72 |
| 4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 71 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 55 | 32 | 23 | 69 |
| 6 | Notts County | 42 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 62 | 43 | 19 | 68 |
| 7 | Grimsby Town | 42 | 20 | 6 | 16 | 59 | 60 | -1 | 66 |
| 8 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 42 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 65 |
| 9 | Chesterfield | 42 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 65 | 50 | 15 | 62 |
| 10 | Salford City | 41 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 61 |
| 11 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 42 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 49 | 44 | 5 | 61 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 66 | 61 | 5 | 57 |
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 42 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 56 | 1 | 56 |
| 14 | Bromley | 42 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 56 | 56 | 0 | 56 |
| 15 | BarrowBarrow | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 55 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 42 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 50 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 42 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 51 | 70 | -19 | 47 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 42 | 13 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 46 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 46 |
| 21 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 42 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 44 |
| 22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 42 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 43 |
| 23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 36 | 63 | -27 | 37 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 42 | 10 | 6 | 26 | 37 | 62 | -25 | 36 |
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