

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 55.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for NEC had a probability of 21.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a NEC win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | NEC |
| 55.9% ( | 23.09% ( | 21.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.99% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.19% ( | 46.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.94% ( | 69.06% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.43% ( | 16.56% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.65% ( | 46.34% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.5% ( | 36.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.72% ( | 73.28% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | NEC |
| 1-0 @ 10.86% ( 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 2-0 @ 9.77% ( 3-1 @ 5.9% ( 3-0 @ 5.86% ( 3-2 @ 2.98% ( 4-1 @ 2.65% ( 4-0 @ 2.63% ( 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 5-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.16% Total : 55.9% | 1-1 @ 10.95% ( 0-0 @ 6.05% ( 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 3-3 @ 1% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.08% | 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 1-2 @ 5.52% ( 0-2 @ 3.07% ( 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 1.77% Total : 21.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 34 | 55 | 67 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Groningen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 50 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 19 |
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