Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 57.27%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 20.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 57.27% ( | 21.98% ( | 20.74% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.23% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.7% ( | 42.3% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.29% ( | 64.71% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.45% ( | 14.55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.4% ( | 42.6% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.8% ( | 34.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.11% ( | 70.89% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% 1-0 @ 9.59% ( 2-0 @ 9.24% ( 3-1 @ 6.37% ( 3-0 @ 5.94% ( 3-2 @ 3.42% ( 4-1 @ 3.07% ( 4-0 @ 2.86% ( 4-2 @ 1.65% ( 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 5-0 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.92% Total : 57.27% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 0-0 @ 4.98% ( 3-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 5.52% 0-1 @ 5.34% ( 0-2 @ 2.86% ( 1-3 @ 1.98% ( 2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.11% Total : 20.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 21 | 39 | 70 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 61 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 28 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 62 | 32 | 30 | 56 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 40 | 14 | 47 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 45 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 34 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 33 |
| 10 | Heracles | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 32 |
| 11 | Groningen | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 31 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 30 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 30 |
| 16 | Willem II | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 19 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 52 | -32 | 19 |
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