Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 65.87%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Martigues had a probability of 12.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.43%) and 1-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Martigues win it was 1-0 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.