Al Okhdood welcome already-relegated Al Raed to Prince Hathloul Sports City Stadium on Thursday evening for the penultimate round of the 2024-25 Saudi Pro League season, knowing that anything short of victory will all but confirm their return to the second tier.
The Ambassador of Najran currently sit in the relegation zone with 28 points, just above the bottom-placed visitors, who have collected only 21 and are already preparing for life outside the top flight.
Match preview
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Having narrowly escaped the drop on the final day last season with a nervy victory to finish 15th, Al Okhdood now find themselves once again staring into the abyss with just two matches left to change their fate.
A three-game losing streak has undone much of the steady progress Paulo Sergio's side had made prior, with a 2-1 defeat at Al Wahda quickly followed by a humiliating 9-0 drubbing at the hands of Al Nassr before a 2-0 reverse at Al Fayha left them four points from safety.
This nosedive comes in sharp contrast to the unbeaten run that preceded it, where Al Okhdood picked up three wins and two draws, with a steely defence at the heart of their resurgence, conceding only twice and keeping three clean sheets during that spell.
While the Ambassador of Najran were not exactly prolific — managing just five goals across those five matches — their compactness at the back proved enough to grind out valuable points, a trait that has since fallen apart with 13 shipped and only one scored in their last three outings.
That defensive regression is an issue Sergio must urgently address ahead of Thursday's crunch tie, particularly against a side that stunned his team 3-1 in their only previous meeting at Prince Hathloul, though Al Okhdood do boast a slight edge in the head-to-head record, having won the other two encounters, including a 2-0 success earlier this season in Buraidah.
However, poor returns in front of their own fans remain a concern for the Ambassador of Najran, with just two victories from 16 home outings in the Pro League this season (D4 L10) — a statistic that leaves the hosts clinging to fragile hope in their fight for survival.
For all of Al Raed's glaring struggles this campaign, they have curiously fared better on the road, collecting 13 points compared to just eight in Buraidah, so the already-relegated side may yet have what it takes to throw a wrench in Al Okhdood's wheel.
However, their most recent trips have ended in disappointment, falling 4-3 to Al Taawoun before a 1-0 reverse at Damac, results that were sandwiched between home setbacks to Al Hilal (5-3) and newly-crowned champions Al Ittihad (3-1).
Kresimir Rezic's men have now suffered four consecutive defeats, marking the third time since the turn of the year that they have lost as many or more league matches in succession.
That bleak run has ultimately sealed their fate, with Al Raed now facing the harsh reality of relegation for the first time since the 2002-03 campaign, bringing a painful end to their lengthy stay in the top flight.
Team News
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Petros remains sidelined for Al Okhdood ahead of Thursday's clash, with the midfielder ruled out until the end of the month due to a serious knee injury that has kept him out of action in recent weeks.
Head coach Sergio might be tempted to ring changes in the final third following a lacklustre attacking display last time out and the uncertain availability of Christian Bassogog.
The 29-year-old Cameroonian was forced off in the game against Al Fayha, which comes as a blow for the side considering he has found the net six times this season, tying with Saviour Godwin as the club's joint-top scorer in the league.
Should Bassogog fail to recover in time, Yaseen Al Zubaidi, who came off the bench to replace him in that match, could be handed a start from the outset.
Elsewhere, Paulo Vitor is expected to reclaim his spot between the sticks after serving a one-match suspension for his red card against Al Nassr, which would see Rakan Najjar drop back to the bench.
The loss to Al Ittihad came at a cost for Al Raed, as both Ayoub Qasmi and Amir Sayoud were forced off injured, leaving question marks over their availability for this upcoming fixture.
Meanwhile, defender Oumar Gonzalez bagged their only goal in that encounter, but the burden of finding the net this Thursday will fall on Karim El Berkaoui, who leads their scoring chart with 11 goals.
Twenty-nine-year-old Portuguese goalkeeper Andre Moreira is expected to retain his place between the sticks for this match.
Al Okhdood possible starting lineup:
Vitor; Assery, Al-Rubaie, Lowe; Al Saeed, Pedroza, Musona, Khamis; Al Zubaidi, Godwin; Barry
Al Raed possible starting lineup:
Moreira; Al-Rajeh, Gonzalez, Al Yousif, Hawsawi; Hazazi, Al-Amri, Abeid, Bouzok, Al Khaibri; El Berkaoui
We say: Al Okhdood 2-1 Al Raed
Putting the ball in the net on the road has not exactly been Al Raed's undoing, especially in recent weeks, where they have struck seven times across their last three trips, so it is hard to see the hosts — who have shipped the joint second most on home turf this season (31) — keeping them quiet here.
Nevertheless, the fact that Al Okhdood have everything to play for should inject added urgency into their display, as anything short of all three points would all but extinguish their hopes of remaining in the top flight.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Adeyeye Oluwapelumi
