Toronto FC
MLS Playoffs | Regular Season
May 29, 2025 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
Philadelphia Union

Toronto
1 - 2
Philadelphia

Brynhildsen (75', 75')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Harriel (86', 86'), Wagner (90+2', 90+2')
Baribo (89'), Baribo (89'), Bedoya (90+7'), Bedoya (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions
MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Toronto 1-2 Nashville
Sunday, May 25 at 12.30am in MLS Playoffs

Philadelphia Union

All competitions
MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Philadelphia 3-3 Inter Miami
Sunday, May 25 at 12.30am in MLS Playoffs

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Philadelphia Union in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Philadelphia Union.

Result
TorontoDrawPhiladelphia Union
32.88% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)24.78% (0.0019999999999989 0)42.33% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Both teams to score 57.74% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.65% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)45.35% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.31% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)67.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.51% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)26.49% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.32% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)61.68% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.54% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)21.45% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.52% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)54.48% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 32.88%
    Philadelphia Union 42.33%
    Draw 24.78%
TorontoDrawPhiladelphia Union
2-1 @ 7.72% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-0 @ 7.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 5.02% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 3.42% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-0 @ 2.22% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.14% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 32.88%
1-1 @ 11.62% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.94% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 5.68% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.78%
1-2 @ 8.94% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-1 @ 8.75% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.73% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 4.59%
0-3 @ 3.45%
2-3 @ 3.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.77%
0-4 @ 1.33%
2-4 @ 1.17%
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 42.33%

How you voted: Toronto vs Philadelphia

Toronto
14.3%
Draw
4.8%
Philadelphia Union
81.0%
21
Head to Head
Jul 14, 2024 12.30am
Toronto
2-1
Philadelphia
Elliott (74' og.), Kerr (78')
Baribo (39')
Sullivan (77')
> Preview
May 30, 2024 12.30am
Philadelphia
0-0
Toronto
Bedoya (25')
Longstaff (87'), Spicer (90+3')
> Preview
Aug 31, 2023 12.30am
Toronto
3-1
Philadelphia
Insigne (23'), Kerr (58'), Osorio (63')
Ibarra (76'), Romero (87'), Insigne (90+3'), Vazquez (90+5')
Carranza (45')
Glesnes (90+1'), Andres Martinez (90+5'), Wagner (90+9')
Bueno (90+7')
> Preview
Apr 23, 2023 12.30am
Philadelphia
4-2
Toronto
> Preview
Oct 9, 2022 7.30pm
Philadelphia
4-0
Toronto
Gazdag (4', 60' pen., 63'), Uhre (42')
> Preview