Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 29, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
0 - 0
Velez Sarsfield


Coelho (27')
FT

Galvan (32'), Bouzat (45+2'), Mauricio Carrizo (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Velez Sarsfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 2-0 Plaza Colonia
Saturday, May 24 at 9.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Velez Sarsfield

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Velez Sarsfield 3-0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
Wednesday, May 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 52.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
PenarolDrawVelez Sarsfield
52.15% (0.399 0.4)25.85% (-0.153 -0.15)22% (-0.247 -0.25)
Both teams to score 46.16% (0.127 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.47% (0.318 0.32)56.53% (-0.319 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.48% (0.256 0.26)77.52% (-0.256 -0.26)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.26% (0.303 0.3)21.74% (-0.304 -0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.08% (0.46 0.46)54.92% (-0.46100000000001 -0.46)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.98% (-0.067 -0.07)41.02% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.43% (-0.058 -0.06)77.57% (0.056999999999988 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 52.14%
    Velez Sarsfield 22%
    Draw 25.84%
PenarolDrawVelez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 13.6% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-0 @ 10.38% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.25% (0.038 0.04)
3-0 @ 5.28% (0.08 0.08)
3-1 @ 4.71% (0.062 0.06)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.024 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.01% (0.048 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.8% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 52.14%
1-1 @ 12.12% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 8.92% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-2 @ 4.12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 25.84%
0-1 @ 7.95% (-0.113 -0.11)
1-2 @ 5.4% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.54% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.61% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.23% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.05% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 1.22%
Total : 22%

How you voted: Penarol vs Velez Sarsfield

Penarol
50.0%
Draw
35.7%
Velez Sarsfield
14.3%
14
Head to Head
Apr 2, 2025 11pm
Group Stage
Velez Sarsfield
2-1
Penarol
Mauricio Carrizo (80'), Montoro (90+5')
Baeza (27'), Lagos (55'), Montoro (90+6')
Fernandez (48')
Sosa (30'), Baez (57')
Nov 5, 2020 12.30am
Second Stage
Penarol
1-1
Velez Sarsfield
Oct 29, 2020 12.30am
Second Stage
Velez Sarsfield
0-0
Penarol
Galdames (44'), Abram (65'), Centurion (74')
Terans (29'), Formiliano (45+1'), Piquerez (70'), Britos (90+2')