In the first leg of the Austrian Bundesliga's Conference League playoff final, LASK Linz will welcome Rapid Vienna to Raiffeisen Arena on Thursday.
The home side managed to defeat Hartberg 2-0 on May 26 in the semi-final to reach this stage, while Rapid Vienna automatically qualified for the final of the playoff after finishing fifth in the league's Championship playoff group.
Match preview
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LASK were fortunate to avoid conceding against Hartberg considering they faced four big chances, though they created five big chances and nearly 2.5 xG.
The hosts finished seventh in the regular season with 31 points – three fewer than Rapid Vienna – and they won seven, drew two and lost just one of their 10 games in their relegation group.
Boss Maximilian Ritscher will be pleased that his side have managed to keep three clean sheets in their last four, though they failed to find the back of the net in the three games prior to their win against Hartberg.
Though the Black-Whites have only suffered one defeat in their past 10 - winning seven - they have lost one and been held to two stalemates in their past four outings.
LASK boast a strong record at home having not been beaten in their six most recent matches at Raiffeisen Arena, achieving victory on four occasions.
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The visitors were beaten 4-2 by Red Bull Salzburg on Saturday, conceding twice within the first 11 minutes, and five of the last seven goals they have conceded have occurred in the first half of games.
Rapid Vienna are in good goalscoring form considering they have found the back of the net seven times in their three most recent matches.
The Green-Whites played their hosts twice this campaign, losing 2-1 on February 23 and drawing 1-1 in September 2024.
Though interim head coach Stefan Kulovits has overseen two victories in his side's last three matches, they lost four of their previous five.
Rapid Vienna's displays away from home have been poor, with the club suffering eight defeats in their past 13 on the road, winning two times in that period.
Team News
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LASK come into the clash without forwards Lenny Pintor and Moses Usor, and their injuries could lead to the selection of Krystof Danek and Robert Zulj in roles behind striker Maximilian Entrup.
Sascha Horvath and Ismaila Cheick Coulibaly may be paired together in a double pivot given midfielder Valon Berisha is absent due to a foot issue.
With goalkeeper Lukas Jungwirth ruled out, Tobias Okiki Lawal is likely to be stationed behind centre-backs Philipp Ziereis, Andres Andrade and Modou Keba Cisse.
As for Rapid Vienna, central defenders Amin Groeller and Jakob Scholler are set to miss out, so expect Kouadio Ange Ahoussou and Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao to feature in the backline.
Elsewhere, defensive midfielder Tobias Borchgrevink Borkeeiet is injured, but he has not frequently been in the XI, whereas Romeo Amane and Matthias Seidl have and both are available.
LASK Linz possible starting lineup:
Lawal; Ziereis, Andrade, Cisse; Flecker, Horvath, Coulibaly, Bello; Danek, Zulj; Entrup
Rapid Vienna possible starting lineup:
Hedl; Bolla, Ahoussou, Raux-Yao, Vincze; Amane, Seidl; Radulovic, Beljo, Wurmbrand; Burgstaller
We say: LASK Linz 2-1 Rapid Vienna
LASK's performances at home have been excellent, and they will be confident of securing a positive result in the first leg.
Rapid Vienna have already failed to beat their hosts twice this season, and it is not difficult to see them narrowly losing on Thursday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a LASK Linz win with a probability of 52.83%. A win for Rapid Vienna has a probability of 24.06% and a draw has a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a LASK Linz win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Rapid Vienna win is 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.82%).
Lewis Nolan
