Just days after hosting the biggest game in European club football, the Allianz Arena is once again the stage for a big match on Wednesday, when Germany face Portugal in the first of two UEFA Nations League semi-finals this week.
Germany are playing in the UNL finals for the first time this year, while Portugal will be seeking to upset the home crowd and have a shot at becoming the first nation to win the competition twice.
Match preview
© Imago
This will be a first Nations League meeting between Germany and Portugal, and the first outside of a major tournament since 1997.
Germany have the honour of hosting the finals on their first appearance at this stage, and they bring excellent form into this semi-final, having lost just one of their last 11 at home - the Euro 2024 quarter-final to eventual winners Spain.
Morale was not too high in Germany ahead of last summer's Euros, but there is now optimism that they can compete with very best ahead of the World Cup in 2026, and for three-quarters of their tie with Italy in the quarters of this competition back in March, that was correct.
However, Julian Nagelsmann's men made hard work of seeing out that tie, despite leading 5-1 on aggregate at half time of the second leg, because Germany conceded three second-half goals to the Azzurri, and they were fortunate to see an away penalty overturned by VAR.
Nevertheless, it did continue a strong showing in this edition of the Nations League, as they also won their group at a canter, earning 14 points from a possible 18 in a group containing Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Germany are creeping up the outright markets for next summer's World Cup, and they are favourites to win the Nations League on home soil this month, so they will be confident at extending their winning streak over Portugal to six matches.
The two are accustomed to meeting on the big stage, but after losing during the groups at Euro 2000, Germany have beaten Portugal at the 2006 and 2014 World Cups, as well as Euro 2008, Euro 2012 and Euro 2020.
© Imago
That is not the sort of record Roberto Martinez will want to see heading into this tie, as he is starting to feel the pressure after a disappointing Euro last summer, and an unconvincing win over Denmark in the quarter-finals of the Nations League.
Portugal were four minutes from elimination, drawing 2-2 at home after a dismal 1-0 defeat in the first leg, but Francisco Trincao's late leveller, and early strike in extra time, helped Portugal to book their spot in the semi-finals.
The 2019 winners are the outsiders among the final four, but much of their current squad were part of the victorious team six years ago, and it would set them up perfectly ahead of World Cup qualifying, which starts in September for Martinez's men, where Ireland, Hungary and Armenia await.
It was important Portugal performed well in the Nations League groups after their uninspiring performances at Euro 2024, that included losing to Georgia, needing penalties to see off Slovenia, before going out to France, and Martinez did see a reaction from his players, remaining unbeaten in their section which included Croatia, Scotland and Poland.
Team News
© Imago
Goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen is back after nine months out injured and will expect to start here ahead of Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nubel.
Captain Joshua Kimmich is set to make his 100th appearance for Germany, and he is the in-form player in the squad, after his dazzling performances against Italy, which saw the Bayern Munich man score and set up the other four of their goals across the two legs.
There are numerous players not available to Nagelsmann, though, with Yann Bisseck the most recent concern after he limped off in the Champions League final, joining Antonio Rudiger, Nico Schlotterbeck and Jamal Musiala on the sidelines, while Kai Havertz has not been risked.
Amid rumours linking him with a move away from Al-Nassr, Cristiano Ronaldo is set to win his 220th Portugal cap here, against a nation he has never previously enjoyed a win against.
Bernardo Silva won his 100th cap in the second leg against Denmark, and he could join two of Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League winners in midfield, in the form of Joao Neves and Vitinha.
Geovany Quenda is the only player missing from the squad that faced Denmark, and fellow uncapped forward Rodrigo Mora is the man who has replaced the Chelsea-bound teenager.
Germany possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Kimmich, Tah, Anton, Mittelstadt; Gross, Goretzka; Gnabry, Wirtz, Sane; Undav
Portugal possible starting lineup:
Costa; Dalot, Dias, A. Silva, Mendes; Bernardo, Vitinha, Neves, Fernandes; Jota, Ronaldo
We say: Germany 3-1 Portugal
These two have been the highest scorers across the Nations League in 2024-25, and there is little reason why this head-to-head will not play out in similar fashion, with action at both ends.
Portugal have the more complete XI, but there are still question marks over Martinez's credentials and his persistence to start with Ronaldo in attack, and in front of a German crowd, the visitors may not have enough.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Germany win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Portugal has a probability of 30.21% and a draw has a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Portugal win is 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.48%).
Andrew Delaney
