Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Germany3 - 3Italy
Kimmich (30' pen.), Musiala (36'), Kleindienst (45')
Stiller (22'), Adeyemi (68'), Kleindienst (79')
Stiller (22'), Adeyemi (68'), Kleindienst (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)
The Match
Match Report
Julian Nagelsmann's Germany progress to the semi-final of the Nations League on Sunday night after a dramatic clash with Luciano Spalletti's Italy at Signal Iduna Park.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League quarter-final between Germany and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Italy 1-2 Germany
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League
| Current League A3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 14 | 14 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Hungary | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 6 | -13 | 2 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 60.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | Italy |
60.59% ( -0.02) | 21.82% ( 0) | 17.59% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.2% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
