UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Germany national football team
Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Italy national football team

Germany
3 - 3
Italy

Kimmich (30' pen.), Musiala (36'), Kleindienst (45')
Stiller (22'), Adeyemi (68'), Kleindienst (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Kean (49', 69'), Raspadori (90+5' pen.)
Gatti (21'), Buongiorno (29'), Bastoni (79'), Barella (90+9')

The Match

Match Report

Julian Nagelsmann's Germany progress to the semi-final of the Nations League on Sunday night after a dramatic clash with Luciano Spalletti's Italy at Signal Iduna Park.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League quarter-final between Germany and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash with Germany.

Form, Standings, Stats

Germany

All competitions
Last Game: Italy 1-2 Germany
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Italy

All competitions
Last Game: Italy 1-2 Germany
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 60.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
GermanyDrawItaly
60.59% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)21.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)17.59% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Both teams to score 51.2% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.74% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)46.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.45%68.55% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.18% (-0.012 -0.01)14.81% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.9% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)43.09% (0.012 0.01)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.11% (0.018999999999998 0.02)39.89% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.45% (0.018000000000001 0.02)76.55% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Germany 60.58%
    Italy 17.59%
    Draw 21.81%
GermanyDrawItaly
1-0 @ 11.28%
2-0 @ 10.77% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.9%
3-0 @ 6.86% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.3% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 3.28% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 3.01% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.9% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.38%
5-0 @ 1.25% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.15% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 60.58%
1-1 @ 10.36%
0-0 @ 5.91% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-2 @ 4.55% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 21.81%
0-1 @ 5.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 4.77% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 2.5% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.46% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.59%

How you voted: Germany vs Italy

Germany
69.9%
Draw
18.7%
Italy
11.4%
123
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2025 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Italy
1-2
Germany
Tonali (9')
Rovella (52'), Maldini (74')
Kleindienst (49'), Goretzka (76')
Amiri (55')
> Match Report
Jun 14, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Germany
5-2
Italy
Kimmich (10'), Gundogan (45+4' pen.), Muller (51'), Werner (68', 69')
Rudiger (61'), Sane (82')
Gnonto (78'), Bastoni (90+4')
> Preview
Jun 4, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Italy
1-1
Germany
Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Italy
0-0
Germany
Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
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4Chelsea38209964432169
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle382061268472166
6Aston Villa38199105851766
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest381981158461265
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton38161396659761
9Bournemouth3815111258461256
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11Fulham38159145454054
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13Everton381115124244-248
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham381110174662-1643
15Manchester UnitedMan Utd38119184454-1042
16Wolverhampton WanderersWolves38126205469-1542
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs38115226465-138
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RIpswich TownIpswich38410243682-4622
RSouthampton3826302686-6012
> Premier League Full Table


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