Angola and Lesotho meet at the Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium on Sunday in their second group-stage outing of the 2025 COSAFA Cup.
Both sides are looking to build on their respective starts in what will be the ninth meeting between them in history.
Match preview
Defending champions Angola began their title defence with a dramatic 1-1 draw against familiar foes Namibia, despite playing about half an hour with a man down after Randy Nteka was sent off in the 61st minute.
The Palancas Negras thought they had snatched all three points when they converted a penalty in the 90th minute, only to concede deep into stoppage time, seven minutes later, denying them a perfect start.
It was a repeat of the 2024 final and group-stage fixture, and although Pedro Goncalves’ men were left frustrated, the late drama showed their ability to compete until the very end even when faced with adversary.
Having lifted the trophy for a fourth time last year, Angola remain favourites to top the group and will be eager to return to winning ways against a side they know well.
Lesotho opened their campaign with a narrow but impressive 1-0 win over Malawi, courtesy of an 87th-minute strike from Makara Ntaitsane.
It was a positive start for the Crocodiles, who endured a torrid time in the 2024 edition, finishing bottom of their group with just one point, but are currently top of group B.
Head coach Leslie Notsi will hope this year’s group can channel the spirit of their 2023 campaign, when they reached the final before losing to Zambia, matching their best-ever finish in the competition, and a result here would put them in a strong position to push for the semi-finals.
Historically, Angola have dominated this fixture, winning five of the eight meetings and drawing once, but Lesotho won the most recent fixture between them, a CHAN qualification game.
Angola COSAFA Cup form:
Angola form (all competitions):
Lesotho COSAFA Cup form:
Lesotho form (all competitions):
Team News
Angola will be without Rayo Vallecano midfielder Nteka, who is suspended following his red card in the opening match.
Goalkeeper Signori Antonio was forced off late on due to injury and is expected to be replaced in the starting XI by Neblu, who came on in his place against Namibia.
Lesotho’s match-winner Ntaitsane made an impact off the bench in their opener, replacing Lehlohonolo Fothoane, and has a strong case to be handed a starting role this time.
Khaketla Matamane is likely to lead the line once again and will be hoping to get off the mark in this year’s tournament.
Angola possible starting lineup:
Neblu; Gaspar, Mananga, Nanque, Bondo; Show, Fernando, Manuel; Milson, Caporal, Zini
Lesotho possible starting lineup:
Seahlolo; Matlabe, Makhele, Sefoli, Malane; Fothoane, Toloane, Matsau; Letsema, Matamane, Maile
We say: Angola 1-1 Lesotho
Angola may boast the pedigree and experience, but Lesotho’s confidence-boosting win over Malawi suggests they will not be pushovers, and with both sides showing defensive discipline, another tight contest could be on the cards.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Angola win with a probability of 71.6%. A draw has a probability of 19.2% and a win for Lesotho has a probability of 9.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Angola win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (15.61%) and 3-0 (10.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Lesotho win it is 0-1 (4.34%).