We said: LDU Quito 2-0 Central Cordoba
With Flamengo likely to beat Tachira with ease, LDU Quito need a convincing success over Central Cordoba to have a chance of reaching the knockout stages.
We feel that the hosts will get the job done in Ecuador on Wednesday night, when El Ferroviario could suffer their first defeat of the competition.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 57.25%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Central Cordoba had a probability of 19.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Central Cordoba win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.