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Preview: French Open: Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's French Open fourth-round match between Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

The undoubted match of the French Open fourth round in the women's draw sees in-form Elena Rybakina strive to end Iga Swiatek's 23-match winning streak on Sunday.

Rybakina easily dispatched Jelena Ostapenko to advance to a fourth match in Paris, and she will face the four-peat-chasing Swiatek, who overcame some difficulty on Friday to beat Jaqueline Cristian.


Match preview

Elena Rybakina in action at the Qatar Open on February 12, 2025© Imago

Much was made of the tussle between two former Grand Slam winners, Rybakina and Ostapenko, on Friday, but the one-time Wimbledon champion had other ideas.

With Ostapenko struggling on serve, the Kazakhstani player took advantage to break the 2017 French Open winner five times and seal a 6-2, 6-2 success in one hour and 15 minutes.

Now into the fourth round at Roland Garros for only the third time in seven appearances, Rybakina seeks to improve her 16-5 French Open record by defeating Swiatek.

Having entered this year's tournament after claiming victory at the ATP 500 event in Strasbourg on the eve of the second Grand Slam of the year, she has followed that success with another three wins in Paris.

Nevertheless, the nine-time WTA champion will be conscious of her two losses in 2025 against the dominant French Open star and hopes to snap that unwanted streak in the pair's ninth meeting.

Iga Swiatek in action at the French Open on May 26, 2025© Imago

It will be fascinating to see how Swiatek reacts to the challenge of facing Rybakina in what is undeniably the five-time Slam winner's sternest examination as she seeks to extend her 23-match winning run.

Yet to drop a set this year, the 22-time WTA titlist was stretched in the second set by Cristian on Friday, though she ultimately secured the decisive break late in the set to seal a 6-2, 7-5 success.

Swiatek, who entered this year's French Open with a 95% win rate from 37 matches, has secured three more victories to improve to 38-2 at the event and reach the fourth round for the seventh consecutive appearance.

Notching 38 wins in her first 40 matches at Roland Garros has equalled Chris Evert's Open Era record, and the 23-year-old bids for a 39th to move into the tournament's last eight for the sixth straight year.

However, the Pole will be mindful of a losing run against Rybakina on clay, where she has suffered two losses: in Rome (2023) and Stuttgart (2024), a portent for Sunday's potentially titanic tussle.


Tournament so far

Elena Rybakina:

First round: vs. Julia Riera 6-1 4-6 6-4
Second round: vs. Iva Jovic 6-3 6-3
Third round: vs. Jelena Ostapenko 6-2 6-2

Iga Swiatek:

First round: vs. Rebecca Sramkova 6-3 6-3
Second round: Emma Raducanu 6-1 6-2
Third round: Jaqueline Cristian 6-2 7-5


Head To Head

Doha (2025) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 6-2 7-5

United Cup (2025) - Semi-final: Swiatek 7-6(5) 6-4

Stuttgart (2024) - Semi-final: Rybakina 6-4 4-6 6-3

Doha (2024) - Final: Swiatek 7-6(8) 6-2

Rome (2023) - Quarter-final: Rybakina 2-6 7-6(3) 2-2 ret

Indian Wells (2023) - Semi-final: Rybakina 6-2 6-2

Australian Open (2023) - Fourth round: Rybakina 6-4 6-4

Ostrava (2021) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 7-6(5) 6-2

Having begun the year trailing Rybakina in their head-to-head, Swiatek's wins at the United Cup and Doha have seen the five-time Grand Slam champion move level at 4-4.

The Pole has now claimed three wins in the previous four matchups against the one-time Slam winner, pointing to a turnaround in their rivalry.

However, Rybakina has never been beaten by Swiatek on clay, the 22-time WTA champion's favourite surface, and she aims to record a third success over the Polish star on the dirt after 2023's Rome success and last year's Stuttgart victory.


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We say: Rybakina to win in three sets

While this prediction may be unpopular, Rybakina's unbeaten run against Swiatek on clay and the Kazakhstani's momentum since recording success in Strasbourg mean we back the nine-time WTA champion to end the four-time French Open champion's 23-match winning streak.

Swiatek looked vulnerable at times against Cristian on Friday, and Sunday's opponent possesses superior quality on serve and in her ball-striking to hurt the five-time Grand Slam champion.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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