

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.95%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-0 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 16.03% ( | 22.27% ( | 61.71% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( | 50.68% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( | 72.59% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.5% ( | 44.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.47% ( | 80.53% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.06% ( | 15.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.8% ( | 45.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 5.74% ( 2-1 @ 4.27% ( 2-0 @ 2.33% ( 3-1 @ 1.15% ( 3-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 1.48% Total : 16.03% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 2-2 @ 3.92% ( Other @ 0.71% Total : 22.26% | 0-1 @ 13.02% ( 0-2 @ 11.95% ( 1-2 @ 9.68% ( 0-3 @ 7.32% ( 1-3 @ 5.93% ( 0-4 @ 3.36% ( 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0-5 @ 1.24% ( 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 1-5 @ 1% ( Other @ 1.97% Total : 61.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 67 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 58 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 31 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 46 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 45 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Groningen | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 32 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Heracles | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 17 |
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