

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 64.58%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 16.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.84%) and 0-1 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.38%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 2-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 16.65% ( | 18.76% ( | 64.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.03% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.24% ( | 33.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.4% ( | 55.59% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.61% ( | 33.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.99% ( | 70.01% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.11% ( | 9.88% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.23% ( | 32.76% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 4.6% ( 1-0 @ 3.62% ( 2-0 @ 1.99% ( 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 3-1 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 2.82% Total : 16.65% | 1-1 @ 8.38% ( 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 0-0 @ 3.3% ( 3-3 @ 1.5% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 18.76% | 1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0-2 @ 8.84% ( 0-1 @ 7.64% ( 1-3 @ 7.48% ( 0-3 @ 6.82% ( 1-4 @ 4.33% ( 2-3 @ 4.1% ( 0-4 @ 3.94% ( 2-4 @ 2.37% ( 1-5 @ 2% ( 0-5 @ 1.83% ( 2-5 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 4.45% Total : 64.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 67 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 58 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 31 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 46 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 45 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Groningen | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 32 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Heracles | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 17 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
