Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 0-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 18.18% ( | 20.3% ( | 61.52% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.55% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.57% ( | 38.43% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.28% ( | 60.72% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.43% ( | 34.56% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.72% ( | 71.28% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.95% ( | 12.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.46% ( | 37.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 4.97% ( 1-0 @ 4.42% ( 2-0 @ 2.35% ( 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 3-1 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 2.81% Total : 18.18% | 1-1 @ 9.36% ( 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 0-0 @ 4.16% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.3% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0-2 @ 9.32% ( 0-1 @ 8.81% ( 1-3 @ 6.99% ( 0-3 @ 6.58% ( 2-3 @ 3.71% ( 1-4 @ 3.7% ( 0-4 @ 3.48% ( 2-4 @ 1.97% ( 1-5 @ 1.57% ( 0-5 @ 1.47% ( Other @ 4.01% Total : 61.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 43 |
| 3 | Ajax | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 21 | 35 | 40 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 39 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 37 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 34 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 27 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 26 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 23 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 23 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 20 |
| 14 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 20 | 48 | -28 | 20 |
| 15 | FC VolendamVolendam | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 17 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 16 |
| 17 | Groningen | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 13 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 12 |
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