Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 23.5% ( | 24.67% ( | 51.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.27% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( | 50.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( | 72.58% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.71% ( | 36.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.93% ( | 73.07% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.46% ( | 19.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.57% ( | 51.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 7.19% ( 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 2-0 @ 3.64% ( 3-1 @ 2.01% ( 3-2 @ 1.64% ( 3-0 @ 1.23% ( Other @ 1.84% Total : 23.5% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 2-2 @ 4.86% ( Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.67% | 0-1 @ 11.57% ( 1-2 @ 9.58% ( 0-2 @ 9.45% ( 1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0-3 @ 5.15% ( 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 1-4 @ 2.13% ( 0-4 @ 2.1% ( 2-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.91% Total : 51.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 41 |
| 3 | Ajax | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 21 | 35 | 40 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 39 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 37 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 34 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 27 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 26 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 23 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 23 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 20 |
| 14 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 20 |
| 15 | FC VolendamVolendam | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 17 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 16 |
| 17 | Groningen | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 13 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 12 |
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