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Empoli logo
Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 1, 2025 at 8pm UK
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Bologna logo

Empoli
0 - 3
Bologna

FT(HT: 0-2)
Orsolini (23'), Dallinga (29', 51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia semi-final first leg between Empoli and Bologna, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Como 1-1 Empoli
Saturday, March 29 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Venezia 0-1 Bologna
Saturday, March 29 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Empoli 1-3 Bologna

Not only do Empoli possess the worst home record throughout Italy's top flight, but Bologna have scored a league-high 25 Serie A goals in 2025. According to their coach, the hosts are prioritising an ongoing fight for survival, so the relentless Rossoblu should secure a healthy first-leg advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 62.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 13.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.16%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Empoli win it was 1-0 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.

Result
EmpoliDrawBologna
13.46% (-2.111 -2.11) 23.84% (-0.663 -0.66) 62.7% (2.776 2.78)
Both teams to score 37.11% (-2.746 -2.75)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.57% (-1.047 -1.05)60.43% (1.049 1.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.44% (-0.799 -0.8)80.56% (0.8 0.8)
Empoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.88% (-3.789 -3.79)54.12% (3.791 3.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.65% (-2.461 -2.46)87.35% (2.464 2.46)
Bologna Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.89% (0.64500000000001 0.65)19.11% (-0.642 -0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.27% (1.055 1.06)50.73% (-1.053 -1.05)
Score Analysis
    Empoli 13.46%
    Bologna 62.69%
    Draw 23.83%
EmpoliDrawBologna
1-0 @ 6.35% (-0.476 -0.48)
2-1 @ 3.23% (-0.575 -0.58)
2-0 @ 1.95% (-0.393 -0.39)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 13.46%
1-1 @ 10.5% (-0.56 -0.56)
0-0 @ 10.34% (0.399 0.4)
2-2 @ 2.67% (-0.412 -0.41)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 23.83%
0-1 @ 17.11% (0.99 0.99)
0-2 @ 14.16% (1.09 1.09)
1-2 @ 8.7% (-0.281 -0.28)
0-3 @ 7.82% (0.745 0.75)
1-3 @ 4.8% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-4 @ 3.23% (0.367 0.37)
1-4 @ 1.99% (0.017 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.47% (-0.193 -0.19)
0-5 @ 1.07% (0.14 0.14)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 62.69%

How you voted: Empoli vs Bologna

Empoli
18.0%
Draw
15.7%
Bologna
66.3%
89
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2025 7.45pm
Gameweek 22
Empoli
1-1
Bologna
Colombo (24')
Henderson (36'), Grassi (40'), Pezzella (78')
Dominguez (44')
Aug 31, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 3
Bologna
1-1
Empoli
Fabbian (2')
Gyasi (3')
Pezzella (55'), Henderson (90+4'), Vasquez (90+5')
Mar 15, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
Empoli
0-1
Bologna

Luperto (28'), Pezzella (30'), Maleh (90+6')
Fabbian (90+4')
Freuler (90+7')
Oct 1, 2023 11.30am
Gameweek 7
Bologna
3-0
Empoli
Orsolini (21', 66', 90+2')
Corazza (44'), El Azzouzi (58')

Cacace (10'), Walukiewicz (39'), Ranocchia (45+3'), Cancellieri (81')
May 4, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 33
Empoli
3-1
Bologna
Lucumi (1' og.), Akpa-Akpro (45+1'), Cambiaghi (68')
Orsolini (88' pen.)
rhs 2.0
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