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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 76.83%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 8.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.82%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 76.83% ( | 14.52% ( | 8.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.73% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.7% ( | 34.3% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.8% ( | 56.2% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.67% ( | 7.32% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.53% ( | 26.47% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.65% ( | 46.34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.01% ( | 81.98% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-0 @ 11.59% ( 3-0 @ 10.1% ( 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 1-0 @ 8.87% ( 3-1 @ 7.77% ( 4-0 @ 6.6% ( 4-1 @ 5.08% ( 5-0 @ 3.45% ( 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 5-1 @ 2.66% ( 4-2 @ 1.95% ( 6-0 @ 1.5% ( 6-1 @ 1.16% ( 5-2 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 3.16% Total : 76.82% | 1-1 @ 6.82% ( 2-2 @ 3.43% ( 0-0 @ 3.39% ( Other @ 0.87% Total : 14.52% | 1-2 @ 2.62% ( 0-1 @ 2.61% ( 0-2 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.41% Total : 8.65% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
