We said: NEC 1-1 AZ Alkmaar
NEC have scored in every home fixture this season, and that trend is expected to continue against AZ on Saturday.
However, a team with only one Eredivisie victory in seven at home facing an opponent with one away win in five suggests that the points could be shared in a score draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 41.94%. A win for NEC had a probability of 34.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.57%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.