

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.07%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 8.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 78.07% ( | 13.68% ( | 8.24% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.33% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.59% ( | 31.41% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.13% ( | 52.87% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.55% ( | 6.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.87% ( | 24.13% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.87% ( | 45.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.96% ( | 81.03% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 3-0 @ 9.99% ( 2-1 @ 8.7% ( 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 3-1 @ 7.95% ( 4-0 @ 6.85% ( 4-1 @ 5.45% ( 5-0 @ 3.75% ( 3-2 @ 3.16% ( 5-1 @ 2.99% ( 4-2 @ 2.17% ( 6-0 @ 1.72% ( 6-1 @ 1.37% ( 5-2 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 3.88% Total : 78.07% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( 2-2 @ 3.46% ( 0-0 @ 2.91% ( Other @ 0.96% Total : 13.68% | 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0-1 @ 2.32% ( 0-2 @ 0.92% ( 2-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.56% Total : 8.24% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 67 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 58 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 31 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 46 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 45 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Groningen | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 32 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Heracles | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 17 |
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