Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 55.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.45%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-0 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | 
| 20.3% (  -0.05) | 23.85% (  -0.02) | 55.84% (  0.07) | 
| Both teams to score 49.57% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 49.18% (  0.02) | 50.82% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.29% (  0.02) | 72.71% (  -0.02) | 
| RKC Waalwijk Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 60.49% (  -0.04) | 39.51% (  0.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.8% (  -0.03) | 76.2% (  0.03) | 
| AZ Alkmaar Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.95% (  0.03) | 18.04% (  -0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.05% (  0.06) | 48.94% (  -0.06) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | 
| 1-0 @ 6.62% (  -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.26% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.07% (  -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.63% (  -0) 3-2 @ 1.4% (  -0) 3-0 @ 0.95% (  -0) Other @ 1.37% Total : 20.3% | 1-1 @ 11.33% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.13% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.51% (  -0) Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.85% | 0-1 @ 12.2% 0-2 @ 10.45% (  0.02) 1-2 @ 9.71% (  0) 0-3 @ 5.97% (  0.01) 1-3 @ 5.54% (  0.01) 2-3 @ 2.57% 0-4 @ 2.55% (  0.01) 1-4 @ 2.37% (  0.01) 2-4 @ 1.1% (  0) Other @ 3.37% Total : 55.83% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 67 | 
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 58 | 
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 | 
| 4 | Feyenoord | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 31 | 26 | 50 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 46 | 
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 45 | 
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 44 | 
| 8 | Groningen | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 32 | 
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 | 
| 10 | Heracles | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 | 
| 11 | Heerenveen | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 | 
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 | 
| 13 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 | 
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 | 
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 | 
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 | 
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 | 
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 17 | 
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
