

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 85.14%. A draw had a probability of 9.2% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 5.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.81%) and 4-0 (7.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.63%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (1.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 85.14% ( | 9.18% ( | 5.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 82.99% ( | 17.01% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 66.29% ( | 33.71% ( |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.25% ( | 2.75% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 87.36% ( | 12.64% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.84% ( | 39.16% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.13% ( | 75.87% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 3-0 @ 8.33% ( 3-1 @ 7.81% ( 4-0 @ 7.48% ( 4-1 @ 7.02% ( 2-0 @ 6.95% ( 2-1 @ 6.52% ( 5-0 @ 5.38% ( 5-1 @ 5.04% ( 1-0 @ 3.87% ( 3-2 @ 3.66% ( 4-2 @ 3.29% ( 6-0 @ 3.22% ( 6-1 @ 3.02% ( 5-2 @ 2.36% ( 7-0 @ 1.65% ( 7-1 @ 1.55% ( 6-2 @ 1.42% ( 4-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 5.55% Total : 85.14% | 1-1 @ 3.63% ( 2-2 @ 3.06% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% 0-0 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 9.18% | 1-2 @ 1.7% ( 0-1 @ 1.01% ( 2-3 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.01% Total : 5.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 25 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 63 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 49 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 46 |
| 5 | Feyenoord | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 40 | 6 | 41 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 32 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 30 |
| 10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 29 |
| 11 | Groningen | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 28 |
| 12 | Heracles | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 27 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 26 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Willem II | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 17 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 50 | -34 | 15 |
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