Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.