Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 41.48%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Middlesbrough | 
| 32.13% ( | 26.39% ( | 41.48% ( | 
| Both teams to score 52.14% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 47.51% ( | 52.49% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 25.84% ( | 74.15% ( | 
| Luton Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.5% ( | 30.49% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.29% ( | 66.71% ( | 
| Middlesbrough Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.01% ( | 24.99% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.36% ( | 59.64% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Luton Town | Draw | Middlesbrough | 
| 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 2-1 @ 7.45% ( 2-0 @ 5.37% ( 3-1 @ 2.95% ( 3-0 @ 2.13% ( 3-2 @ 2.05% ( Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.13%  | 1-1 @ 12.55% ( 0-0 @ 7.62% ( 2-2 @ 5.17% ( 3-3 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.39%  | 0-1 @ 10.56% ( 1-2 @ 8.7% ( 0-2 @ 7.33% ( 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0-3 @ 3.39% ( 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0-4 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.52% Total : 41.48%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 | 
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 | 
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 | 
| 4 | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 | 
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 | 
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 | 
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 | 
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 | 
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 | 
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 | 
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 | 
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 | 
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 | 
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 | 
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 | 
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 | 
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 | 
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 | 
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 | 
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 | 
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 | 
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 | 
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