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Championship | Gameweek 35
Mar 1, 2025 at 3pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Derby logo

Middlesbrough
1 - 0
Derby

Azaz (80')
Azaz (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Barkhuizen (19'), Forsyth (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stoke 1-3 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Millwall
Saturday, February 22 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County

Middlesbrough will have renewed belief after returning to winning ways in midweek, and we think that they will build upon their successful trip to the bet365 stadium by recording a narrow victory over a Derby side that have lost five of their last six away league matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 55.26%. A draw has a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.05%).

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
55.26% (-1.034 -1.03) 24.54% (0.355 0.36) 20.2% (0.681 0.68)
Both teams to score 47.45% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.43% (-0.525 -0.52)53.57% (0.529 0.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.92% (-0.444 -0.44)75.08% (0.44800000000001 0.45)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.7% (-0.59400000000001 -0.59)19.3% (0.597 0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.94% (-0.991 -0.99)51.05% (0.994 0.99)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.8% (0.444 0.44)41.2% (-0.44 -0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.27% (0.391 0.39)77.73% (-0.387 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 55.25%
    Derby County 20.2%
    Draw 24.54%
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.08% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 10.75% (-0.19 -0.19)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.9% (-0.217 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-0.137 -0.14)
3-2 @ 2.32% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.15% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 55.25%
1-1 @ 11.6% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 7.95% (0.164 0.16)
2-2 @ 4.23% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 24.54%
0-1 @ 7.05% (0.228 0.23)
1-2 @ 5.14% (0.132 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.13% (0.138 0.14)
1-3 @ 1.52% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.25% (0.023 0.02)
0-3 @ 0.92% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 1.19%
Total : 20.2%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Derby

Middlesbrough
76.5%
Draw
14.7%
Derby County
8.8%
34
Head to Head
Aug 17, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 2
Derby
1-0
Middlesbrough
Jackson (14')
Mendez-Laing (40'), Elder (67'), Jackson (90+2')

Latte Lath (42')
Feb 12, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 32
Middlesbrough
4-1
Derby
Buchanan (15' og.), Connolly (44'), Crooks (45+3'), Watmore (89')
Tavernier (27'), Crooks (31'), Howson (50')
Bird (39')
Lawrence (27'), Ebiowei (87'), (88')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Derby
0-0
Middlesbrough
Jagielka (66'), Byrne (90+1')
Peltier (30'), Tavernier (43'), Bola (54'), Jones (85')
Feb 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 29
Derby
2-1
Middlesbrough
Gregory (15'), Kazim-Richards (32')
Jozwiak (35'), Knight (90+4')
Kebano (38')
Dijksteel (62')
Nov 25, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough
3-0
Derby
Assombalonga (33'), Clarke (71' og.), Johnson (83')

Jozwiak (9'), Lawrence (49'), Byrne (53'), Buchanan (65')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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