Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 55.26%. A draw has a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.05%).
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Derby County |
| 55.26% ( | 24.54% ( | 20.2% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.43% ( | 53.57% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.92% ( | 75.08% ( |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.7% ( | 19.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.94% ( | 51.05% ( |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.8% ( | 41.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.27% ( | 77.73% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 13.08% ( 2-0 @ 10.75% ( 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 3-0 @ 5.9% ( 3-1 @ 5.23% ( 4-0 @ 2.43% ( 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 4-1 @ 2.15% ( 4-2 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.9% Total : 55.25% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 2-2 @ 4.23% ( Other @ 0.75% Total : 24.54% | 0-1 @ 7.05% ( 1-2 @ 5.14% ( 0-2 @ 3.13% ( 1-3 @ 1.52% ( 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.19% Total : 20.2% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 |
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 |
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 |
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 |
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 |
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 |
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 |
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 |
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 |
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 |
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 |
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 |
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 |
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 |
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 |
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 |
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 |
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 |
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