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Championship | Gameweek 33
Feb 14, 2025 at 8pm UK
Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium
Derby logo

QPR
4 - 0
Derby

Chair (21', 57'), Saito (35'), Edwards (66')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mendez-Laing (65'), Jackson (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Queens Park Rangers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Coventry 1-0 QPR
Tuesday, February 11 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, February 11 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Queens Park Rangers 2-1 Derby County

While the visitors have shown improvement under Hamshaw and the hosts have lost three of their last four, QPR will be the favourites given the difference in league standings, and we expect the home team to come out on top in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 45.89%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Queens Park Rangers would win this match.

Result
Queens Park RangersDrawDerby County
45.89% (-0.289 -0.29) 26.31% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 27.8% (0.257 0.26)
Both teams to score 50.19% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.03% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)53.97% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.59% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)75.41% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Queens Park Rangers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.53% (-0.133 -0.13)23.47% (0.137 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.52% (-0.195 -0.2)57.48% (0.19900000000001 0.2)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.57% (0.209 0.21)34.42% (-0.204 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.86% (0.22 0.22)71.13% (-0.21599999999999 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Queens Park Rangers 45.89%
    Derby County 27.8%
    Draw 26.3%
Queens Park RangersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.7% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.05% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.49% (-0.068999999999999 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.37% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.1% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.59% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.49% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 45.89%
1-1 @ 12.48% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.08% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 4.83% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 26.3%
0-1 @ 8.61% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
1-2 @ 6.66% (0.047 0.05)
0-2 @ 4.59% (0.05 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.37% (0.03 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.015 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.63% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 27.8%

How you voted: QPR vs Derby

Queens Park Rangers
83.0%
Draw
8.0%
Derby County
8.9%
112
Head to Head
Oct 5, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 9
Derby
2-0
QPR
Nelson (54'), Harness (55')
Cashin (38')

Dunne (90+6')
Apr 18, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 43
QPR
1-0
Derby
Amos (88')
Dozzell (59'), Field (72')

Lawrence (56')
Lawrence (90+8')
Nov 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Derby
1-2
QPR
Lawrence (10')
Willock (50'), Gray (90')
Gray (90+1')
Jan 23, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 26
QPR
0-1
Derby

Cameron (31'), Kane (51')
Nov 4, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Derby
0-1
QPR
Bonne (88')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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