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Championship | Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 at 3pm UK
Carrow Road
Derby logo

Norwich
1 - 1
Derby

Sargent (68')
Fisher (30'), Doyle (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Yates (89' pen.)
Adams (27'), Phillips (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Norwich City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Watford 0-1 Norwich
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Norwich City 2-0 Derby County

Norwich City head into Saturday's clash off the back of securing victories over Swansea and Watford in their last two outings and will be backing themselves to keep the juggernaut rolling against an out-of-sorts Derby County side. The Rams' form is currently nothing to write home about and we see them struggling at Carrow Road this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
52.06% (0.127 0.13) 23.5% (-0.209 -0.21) 24.45% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 56.07% (0.783 0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.17% (0.997 1)44.83% (-0.995 -0.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.81% (0.953 0.95)67.19% (-0.952 -0.95)
Norwich City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.416 0.42)17.23% (-0.414 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (0.728 0.73)47.53% (-0.726 -0.73)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.74% (0.61199999999999 0.61)32.26% (-0.61 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.25% (0.688 0.69)68.75% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)
Score Analysis
    Norwich City 52.06%
    Derby County 24.45%
    Draw 23.49%
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.77% (-0.286 -0.29)
2-1 @ 9.72% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-1 @ 5.7% (0.085 0.09)
3-0 @ 5.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.101 0.1)
4-1 @ 2.51% (0.071 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.22% (0.027 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 3.87%
Total : 52.06%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 5.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5.5% (0.099 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.49%
0-1 @ 6.29% (-0.165 -0.17)
1-2 @ 6.26% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.56% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.36% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.071 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.34% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 24.45%

How you voted: Norwich vs Derby

Norwich City
90.2%
Draw
7.8%
Derby County
2.0%
51
Head to Head
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
2-3
Norwich
Forsyth (60'), Taylor (90+1')
Forsyth (21'), Chirewa (77'), Goudmijn (79')
Sainz (45+3', 65', 87')
Duffy (24'), Cordoba (90+5')
Apr 10, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 41
Derby
0-1
Norwich

Shinnie (11'), Bird (15'), Forsyth (20'), Roberts (68')
Dowell (21')
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
Gameweek 4
Norwich
0-1
Derby

Buendia (44'), Zimmermann (54'), Rupp (86')
Rooney (87')
Shinnie (79'), Knight (79')
Dec 29, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 25
Norwich
3-4
Derby
Godfrey (25'), Pukki (31', 81')
Zimmermann (5'), Aarons (45'), Vrancic (62')
Tomori (36'), Mount (45'), Jozefzoon (87'), Marriott (90')
Evans (66'), Holmes (90'), Wilson (90')
Oct 3, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
1-1
Norwich
Bryson (86')
Bogle (62')
Klose (69')
Zimmermann (45'), Lewis (54')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLeeds UnitedLeeds4629134953065100
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd462881063362790
4Sunderland4621131258441476
5Coventry CityCoventry46209176458669
6Bristol City461717125955468
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn46199185348566
8Millwall461812164749-266
9West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4615191257471064
10Middlesbrough461810186456864
11Swansea CitySwansea461710195156-561
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds461513186069-958
13Norwich CityNorwich461415177168357
14Watford46169215361-857
15Queens Park RangersQPR461414185363-1056
16Portsmouth461412205871-1354
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd461314194965-1653
18Stoke CityStoke461215194562-1751
19Derby CountyDerby461311224856-850
20Preston North EndPreston461020164859-1150
21Hull City461213214454-1049
RLuton TownLuton461310234569-2449
RPlymouth ArgylePlymouth461113225188-3746
RCardiff CityCardiff46917204873-2544


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