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Championship | Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 at 3pm UK
Carrow Road
Derby logo

Norwich
1 - 1
Derby

Sargent (68')
Fisher (30'), Doyle (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Yates (89' pen.)
Adams (27'), Phillips (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Norwich City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Watford 0-1 Norwich
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Norwich City 2-0 Derby County

Norwich City head into Saturday's clash off the back of securing victories over Swansea and Watford in their last two outings and will be backing themselves to keep the juggernaut rolling against an out-of-sorts Derby County side. The Rams' form is currently nothing to write home about and we see them struggling at Carrow Road this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
52.06% (0.127 0.13) 23.5% (-0.209 -0.21) 24.45% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 56.07% (0.783 0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.17% (0.997 1)44.83% (-0.995 -0.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.81% (0.953 0.95)67.19% (-0.952 -0.95)
Norwich City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.416 0.42)17.23% (-0.414 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (0.728 0.73)47.53% (-0.726 -0.73)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.74% (0.61199999999999 0.61)32.26% (-0.61 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.25% (0.688 0.69)68.75% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)
Score Analysis
    Norwich City 52.06%
    Derby County 24.45%
    Draw 23.49%
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.77% (-0.286 -0.29)
2-1 @ 9.72% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-1 @ 5.7% (0.085 0.09)
3-0 @ 5.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.101 0.1)
4-1 @ 2.51% (0.071 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.22% (0.027 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 3.87%
Total : 52.06%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 5.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5.5% (0.099 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.49%
0-1 @ 6.29% (-0.165 -0.17)
1-2 @ 6.26% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.56% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.36% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.071 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.34% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 24.45%

How you voted: Norwich vs Derby

Norwich City
90.2%
Draw
7.8%
Derby County
2.0%
51
Head to Head
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
2-3
Norwich
Forsyth (60'), Taylor (90+1')
Forsyth (21'), Chirewa (77'), Goudmijn (79')
Sainz (45+3', 65', 87')
Duffy (24'), Cordoba (90+5')
Apr 10, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 41
Derby
0-1
Norwich

Shinnie (11'), Bird (15'), Forsyth (20'), Roberts (68')
Dowell (21')
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
Gameweek 4
Norwich
0-1
Derby

Buendia (44'), Zimmermann (54'), Rupp (86')
Rooney (87')
Shinnie (79'), Knight (79')
Dec 29, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 25
Norwich
3-4
Derby
Godfrey (25'), Pukki (31', 81')
Zimmermann (5'), Aarons (45'), Vrancic (62')
Tomori (36'), Mount (45'), Jozefzoon (87'), Marriott (90')
Evans (66'), Holmes (90'), Wilson (90')
Oct 3, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
1-1
Norwich
Bryson (86')
Bogle (62')
Klose (69')
Zimmermann (45'), Lewis (54')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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