FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 14, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Brisbane Road

Leyton Orient
1 - 1
Derby

Kelman (20')
Pratley (43'), Donley (74'), Clare (90+2')

FT
(aet)

Brown (24')
Adams (84')

Leyton Orient win 6-5 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's rearranged FA Cup clash between Leyton Orient and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leyton Orient

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Leyton Orient 1-0 Shrewsbury
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol City 1-0 Derby
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leyton Orient win with a probability of 54.99%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 19.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leyton Orient win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.17%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.47%).

Result
Leyton Orient	Draw	Derby County
54.99% ( -0.2)	25.25% ( 0.27)	19.77% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 44.87% (

-0.81)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.34% (

-1.02)

56.66% (

1.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.38% (

-0.83)

77.63% (

0.83)

Leyton Orient Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.38% (

-0.48)

20.62% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.82% (

-0.77)

53.18% (

0.77)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.53% (

-0.67)

43.47% (

0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.31% (

-0.56)

79.69% (

0.56)

Score Analysis

Leyton Orient 54.98%

Derby County 19.77%

Draw 25.25%

Leyton Orient	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 14.15% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.28% Total : 54.98%	1-1 @ 11.79% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.62% Total : 25.25%	0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.83% Total : 19.77%